科技政策作为提高科技竞争力的重要手段，正为世界各国所关注，科技政策效果评价成为当前包括情报学在内的多学科的重要研究内容。科技政策效果评价有以计算效益为重点、以结果为重点和以内容为重点等流派，以及面向经济影响的评价方法、基于反事实的因果推断方法和智能化定量分析方法等方法。效果评价将成为未来科技政策评价的核心，采纳自动化的评价方法、充分运用大数据资源、扩展评价信息来源以及开发新的评价指标等将是科技政策效果评价的主要发展方向。

Science and technology policy, as an important means to improve science and technology competitiveness, has attracted unprecedented attention of countries all over the world. The effect evaluation of science and technology policy has become an important research content of many disciplines, including information science. This paper summarizes the main schools and mainstream methods of science and technology policy effect evaluation, and analyzes the development trends of science and technology policy effect evaluation. Meanwhile, the paper holds that effect evaluation will become the core of science and technology policy evaluation in the future, and adopting automatic evaluation methods, making full use of big data resources, expanding evaluation information sources and developing new evaluation indicators will be the main development direction of science and technology policy effect evaluation.